Money. Identity. Technology.
Follow the money. Find the decision.
A shared technical and organizational origin for campaign leaders
Conjecture was founded in 2022 as a venture-backed AI-alignment company. Several people later central to ControlAI worked there, including Connor Leahy, Andrea Miotti and Eva Behrens. Leahy’s March 2026 retrospective described the company’s operational ending and his move into ControlAI US.
Conjecture launched in April 2022 with Connor Leahy, Sid Black and Gabriel Alfour named as founders. Much of its early team came from EleutherAI. Its declared mission was AI alignment, and it disclosed venture backing from well-known technology investors and founders. This was an effort to organize technical research and commercial development around the problem of making advanced systems behave as intended.
Several later ControlAI figures worked inside that effort. Miotti held AI-policy, strategy and governance responsibilities; Behrens described operations work. Winga’s historical biography identifies him as an AI research engineer at Conjecture. These roles explain a practical transfer of experience: research, administration, policy and public communication did not have to be assembled from strangers when people moved into campaigning.
The strategic disagreement was explicit by June 2023, when Conjecture’s leadership criticized parts of the effective-altruism and technical-safety community for supporting advanced-AI laboratories. Its response argued for stopping superintelligence development. Leahy’s March 2026 retrospective later described unsuccessful technical and product efforts, the operational ending of Conjecture and his move to ControlAI US.
Tallinn’s investment vehicle Metaplanet lists Conjecture in its portfolio, adding a commercial relationship to the donor connections elsewhere in the network. For readers, the central point is the organization’s historical role: it gathered a team, resources and a view of AI risk, and several of those people subsequently pursued a political answer through different institutions.
Assessment updated 2026-09-12
Conjecture's 2022 venture backers → Conjecture
2022-04
Launch names Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, Patrick and John Collison, Arthur Breitman, Andrej Karpathy, Sam Bankman-Fried. Amounts/current holdings unknown. No onward ControlAI transfer documented.
Andrea Miotti → Conjecture
2022–2025 professional record
2025 parliamentary biography describes former Head of Strategy and Governance. 2022 title was Head of AI Policy and Governance; not founder.
Eva Behrens → Conjecture
2025
Self-description and May 2025 privacy notice. Conjecture work subsequently ended operationally per Leahy; no current continuity inferred.
Connor Leahy → Conjecture
2022 launch; historical
2022 launch also names Sid Black. March 2026 retrospective describes operational ending, not corporate dissolution.
Jaan Tallinn → Conjecture
Checked 12 September 2026
Tallinn’s investment vehicle Metaplanet lists Conjecture in its portfolio with a 2022 entry.
Leahy describes Conjecture's investor-backed founding, technical research, product pivot and failures, and announces joining ControlAI US. He credits an initial investor by first name, Nat, but supplies no new ControlAI donor identity or transfer. This supports a personnel/intellectual trajectory, not a financial merger, assignment of assets or continuing Conjecture-funded payroll.
Read the research & sources ↗The supported sequence is: EleutherAI/open-source roots; a safety-focused startup with venture investors; discussions and later conflict with parts of the EA/technical-safety community; public opposition to e/acc; then Leahy's transition into ControlAI. No reviewed primary statement establishes that Conjecture or Leahy was formerly an e/acc member. A break with EA is explicitly attested. These labels must remain distinct.
Read the research & sources ↗New corroboration for previous Behrens findings: https://www.talosnetwork.org/perspectives/alumni-newsletter-october-2025 . Opened/read, dated October14,2025, author David Conrad. Latest Publications explicitly identifies Behrens as Summer2022 alumna and reports Conjecture/ControlAI coauthorship. This upgrades the earlier indexed-only Talos cohort observation to a read primary publisher source; no fellowship payment or donor earmark follows from it.
Read the research & sources ↗Conjecture chronology and faction evidence : the documented rupture is with parts of core EA, contemporaneously visible in June 2023. The reviewed e/acc connection is public disagreement. No earlier e/acc membership, departure, or investor withdrawal was established.
Read the research & sources ↗Connor Leahy → Cofounder → Conjecture
2022 launch; historical
2022 launch also names Sid Black. March 2026 retrospective describes operational ending, not corporate dissolution.
Gabriel Alfour → Cofounder → Conjecture
2022 launch; historical
2022 launch also names Sid Black. March 2026 retrospective describes operational ending, not corporate dissolution.
Conjecture's 2022 venture backers → Disclosed 2022 venture backing → Conjecture
2022-04
Launch names Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, Patrick and John Collison, Arthur Breitman, Andrej Karpathy, Sam Bankman-Fried. Amounts/current holdings unknown. No onward ControlAI transfer documented.
Andrea Miotti → Former policy / strategy leadership → Conjecture
2022–2025 professional record
2025 parliamentary biography describes former Head of Strategy and Governance. 2022 title was Head of AI Policy and Governance; not founder.
Eva Behrens → Operations work in 2025 → Conjecture
2025
Self-description and May 2025 privacy notice. Conjecture work subsequently ended operationally per Leahy; no current continuity inferred.
Jaan Tallinn → Metaplanet portfolio connection → Conjecture
Checked 12 September 2026
Tallinn’s investment vehicle Metaplanet lists Conjecture in its portfolio with a 2022 entry. A commercial investment is distinct from later donations to ControlAI.